Talk:2024 Atlantic hurricane season: Difference between revisions
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== Forecast Ranges == |
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The forecast shows ranges for some of the forecasts but not others. The CSU paper shows a 68% confidence interval for named storms of 19-27. The paper points out that the distribution may not be symmetric, but it is. Thus it is a reasonable guess that the 95% range is 15-31 and the 99% range is 11-35. The forecast table should present the range and an associated probability for the range of each forecast. Preferably the same probability would be used for all forecasts. Similarly the historical range should include the range stated at the same probability as the forecast. [[User:JAQUINO|JAQUINO]] ([[User talk:JAQUINO|talk]]) 13:37, 17 September 2024 (UTC) |
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I have created an [[Draft:Tropical Storm Ernesto (2024)|Ernesto draft]] as it is currently impacting the Leeward Islands and is forecasted to heavily impact some of the Greater Antilles and eventually Bermuda. Any expansion would be greatly appreciated. [[User:Shmego|Shmego]] ([[User talk:Shmego|talk]]) 12:55, 13 August 2024 (UTC) |
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| ⚫ | :I think it is fine as is. I am decently sure that we use the numbers that they most openly use, like the ones on their first page. [[User:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶Qux</span>]][[User talk:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">yz</span>]][[special:contributions/Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶</span>]] 17:26, 18 September 2024 (UTC) |
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== Colorado State University seasonal discussion == |
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== Hurricane prediction as of September 2024 == |
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Hello, |
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As October quickly approaches, models are currently showing that the tropical Atlantic will likely experience lower than average hurricane activity for the 2024 hurricane season due to dry air from the Saharan Dust and abnormally high wind shear. [[User:Williamwang363|Williamwang363]] ([[User talk:Williamwang363|talk]]) 16:38, 18 September 2024 (UTC) |
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Editors of this article, particularly the Seasonal forecasts section, may be interested in knowing that on September 3, the [[Colorado State University]] (CSU) [https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024_0903_seasondiscussion.pdf published this document] explaining the state of atmospheric conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean and how those conditions are (negatively) affecting the season's activity. |
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| ⚫ | :We cannot publish [[wp:OR|Original Research]] and this is not a [[wp:forum|place to discuss]] the season in general. [[User:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶Qux</span>]][[User talk:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">yz</span>]][[special:contributions/Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶</span>]] 17:25, 18 September 2024 (UTC) |
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I am aware that many years ago (i.e. before 2009), CSU would issue updated monthly seasonal forecasts around this time of the year. However, this is the first time I have ever recalled the university issuing a statement like this, especially several weeks after their August forecast. |
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== [[Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (2024)]] == |
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Given that CSU and multiple other organizations have issued forecasts calling for an extremely active season, I suspect <small>(but have no sources to confirm)</small> this document is a reflection of some concerns that their forecasts were too aggressive. |
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Hi: |
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Based on this information, I support editing the Seasonal forecasts section to include some mention of CSU's latest statement. However, is there a [[WP:CONSENSUS|consensus]] to do so by members of [[WP:WPTC]] and elsewhere in the Wikipedia community? Any input would be greatly appreciated. |
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Does anyone know if an article has been created about the flood in the Carolinas that this system produced? |
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Thank you, |
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[[User:Pierre cb|Pierre cb]] ([[User talk:Pierre cb|talk]]) 21:07, 21 September 2024 (UTC) |
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:I don't know if anyone has made a draft yet, but I'd support making a draft. [https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/09/19/north-carolina-flooding-death/75289504007/ There was a death] related to flooding. The [https://www.weather.gov/ilm/TropicalEventSummary Wilmington National Weather Service] has info on the storm, [https://www.weather.gov/ilm/2024PTC8 even an entire page]. The storm caused significant flooding, maybe enough to warrant an article. ♫ [[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] (<small>[[User_talk:Hurricanehink|talk]]</small>) 21:25, 21 September 2024 (UTC) |
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| ⚫ | ::Why do we have the disambiguater? I'm pretty sure there have only been three PTC articles. [[User:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶Qux</span>]][[User talk:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">yz</span>]][[special:contributions/Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶</span>]] 01:14, 22 September 2024 (UTC) |
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:::Helene in 2018 was "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight". So I'm not sure if the year is needed, since this one was more notable. On the other hand, if there are any PTC8's in the future, this would need to be moved anyway. Maybe something like [[September 2024 North Carolina storm]] if PTC8 (2024) is too long? ♫ [[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] (<small>[[User_talk:Hurricanehink|talk]]</small>) 01:33, 22 September 2024 (UTC) |
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| ⚫ | :@[[User:Pierre cb|Pierre cb]], Have you made an article (or draft if frwiki has them) in French yet? [[User:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶Qux</span>]][[User talk:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">yz</span>]][[special:contributions/Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶</span>]] 12:56, 22 September 2024 (UTC) |
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::No, I just integrated the few info I had into the 2024 Hurricane season article, which is enough for the time being. However, I have uploaded some images into Commons if someone has more info and want to do a draft in English. [[User:Pierre cb|Pierre cb]] ([[User talk:Pierre cb|talk]]) 13:17, 22 September 2024 (UTC) |
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:::I have very limited information on it myself and I believe it has been integrated into enwiki's seasonal article. On a tangential note, PTC 22 from last year did quite a bit of damage, should we look into making it an article? [[User:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶Qux</span>]][[User talk:Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">yz</span>]][[special:contributions/Quxyz|<span style="color: goldenrod">✶</span>]] 13:19, 22 September 2024 (UTC) |
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::Its not worth mentioning it in the seasonal forecasts section as it isn't a seasonal forecast, however, it would be good to work bits of it into the Seasonal Summary section.[[User:Jason Rees|Jason Rees]] ([[User talk:Jason Rees|talk]]) 20:24, 4 September 2024 (UTC) |
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| ⚫ | : |
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I've gone ahead and started up [[Draft:Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (2024)|a draft]] for PoTC Nine, as it is likely to be a significant system to affect the Gulf Coast. Feel free to add info as you please. '''''[[User:MarioProtIV|MarioProtIV]]''''' (<sup>[[User talk:MarioProtIV|talk]]</sup>/<sub>[[Special:Contributions/MarioProtIV|contribs]]</sub>) 15:19, 23 September 2024 (UTC) |
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== Seasonal summary graph == |
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:Thanks. I saw that someone went ahead and published it earlier, but the draft should probably remain in place until there are either significant preparations for the US gulf coast, or significant impacts (possibly Cuba). ♫ [[User:Hurricanehink|Hurricanehink]] (<small>[[User_talk:Hurricanehink|talk]]</small>) 21:19, 23 September 2024 (UTC) |
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:I suggest we wait, as each column in past seasons contains 10/11 or so cyclones. [[User:Drdpw|Drdpw]] ([[User talk:Drdpw|talk]]) 23:06, 4 September 2024 (UTC) |
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Latest revision as of 21:19, 23 September 2024
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Forecast Ranges
[edit]The forecast shows ranges for some of the forecasts but not others. The CSU paper shows a 68% confidence interval for named storms of 19-27. The paper points out that the distribution may not be symmetric, but it is. Thus it is a reasonable guess that the 95% range is 15-31 and the 99% range is 11-35. The forecast table should present the range and an associated probability for the range of each forecast. Preferably the same probability would be used for all forecasts. Similarly the historical range should include the range stated at the same probability as the forecast. JAQUINO (talk) 13:37, 17 September 2024 (UTC)
- I think it is fine as is. I am decently sure that we use the numbers that they most openly use, like the ones on their first page. ✶Quxyz✶ 17:26, 18 September 2024 (UTC)
Hurricane prediction as of September 2024
[edit]As October quickly approaches, models are currently showing that the tropical Atlantic will likely experience lower than average hurricane activity for the 2024 hurricane season due to dry air from the Saharan Dust and abnormally high wind shear. Williamwang363 (talk) 16:38, 18 September 2024 (UTC)
- We cannot publish Original Research and this is not a place to discuss the season in general. ✶Quxyz✶ 17:25, 18 September 2024 (UTC)
Hi:
Does anyone know if an article has been created about the flood in the Carolinas that this system produced?
Pierre cb (talk) 21:07, 21 September 2024 (UTC)
- I don't know if anyone has made a draft yet, but I'd support making a draft. There was a death related to flooding. The Wilmington National Weather Service has info on the storm, even an entire page. The storm caused significant flooding, maybe enough to warrant an article. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 21:25, 21 September 2024 (UTC)
- Why do we have the disambiguater? I'm pretty sure there have only been three PTC articles. ✶Quxyz✶ 01:14, 22 September 2024 (UTC)
- Helene in 2018 was "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight". So I'm not sure if the year is needed, since this one was more notable. On the other hand, if there are any PTC8's in the future, this would need to be moved anyway. Maybe something like September 2024 North Carolina storm if PTC8 (2024) is too long? ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 01:33, 22 September 2024 (UTC)
- Why do we have the disambiguater? I'm pretty sure there have only been three PTC articles. ✶Quxyz✶ 01:14, 22 September 2024 (UTC)
- @Pierre cb, Have you made an article (or draft if frwiki has them) in French yet? ✶Quxyz✶ 12:56, 22 September 2024 (UTC)
- No, I just integrated the few info I had into the 2024 Hurricane season article, which is enough for the time being. However, I have uploaded some images into Commons if someone has more info and want to do a draft in English. Pierre cb (talk) 13:17, 22 September 2024 (UTC)
- I have very limited information on it myself and I believe it has been integrated into enwiki's seasonal article. On a tangential note, PTC 22 from last year did quite a bit of damage, should we look into making it an article? ✶Quxyz✶ 13:19, 22 September 2024 (UTC)
- No, I just integrated the few info I had into the 2024 Hurricane season article, which is enough for the time being. However, I have uploaded some images into Commons if someone has more info and want to do a draft in English. Pierre cb (talk) 13:17, 22 September 2024 (UTC)
New draft for Nine
[edit]I've gone ahead and started up a draft for PoTC Nine, as it is likely to be a significant system to affect the Gulf Coast. Feel free to add info as you please. MarioProtIV (talk/contribs) 15:19, 23 September 2024 (UTC)
- Thanks. I saw that someone went ahead and published it earlier, but the draft should probably remain in place until there are either significant preparations for the US gulf coast, or significant impacts (possibly Cuba). ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 21:19, 23 September 2024 (UTC)