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The Skeptics' Guide to the Future: What Yesterday's Science and Science Fiction Tell Us About the World of Tomorrow
From the bestselling authors and hosts of "The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe," a high-tech roadmap of the future in their beloved voice, cracking open the follies of futurists past and how technology will profoundly change our world, redefining what it means to be human.
Our predictions of the future are a wild fantasy, inextricably linked to our present hopes and fears, biases and ignorance. Whether they be the outlandish leaps predicted in the 1920s, like multi-purpose utility belts with climate control capabilities and planes the size of luxury cruise ships, or the forecasts of the ‘60s, which didn’t anticipate the sexual revolution or women’s liberation, the path to the present is littered with failed predictions and incorrect estimations. The best we can do is try to absorb the lessons from futurism's checkered past, perhaps learning to do a little better.
In THE SKEPTICS' GUIDE TO THE FUTURE, Steven Novella and his co-authors build upon the work of futurists of the past by examining what they got right, what they got wrong, and how they came to those conclusions. By exploring the pitfalls of each era, they give their own speculations about the distant future, transformed by unbelievable technology ranging from genetic manipulation to artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Applying their trademark skepticism, they carefully extrapolate upon each scientific development, leaving no stone unturned as they lay out a vision for the future.
Our predictions of the future are a wild fantasy, inextricably linked to our present hopes and fears, biases and ignorance. Whether they be the outlandish leaps predicted in the 1920s, like multi-purpose utility belts with climate control capabilities and planes the size of luxury cruise ships, or the forecasts of the ‘60s, which didn’t anticipate the sexual revolution or women’s liberation, the path to the present is littered with failed predictions and incorrect estimations. The best we can do is try to absorb the lessons from futurism's checkered past, perhaps learning to do a little better.
In THE SKEPTICS' GUIDE TO THE FUTURE, Steven Novella and his co-authors build upon the work of futurists of the past by examining what they got right, what they got wrong, and how they came to those conclusions. By exploring the pitfalls of each era, they give their own speculations about the distant future, transformed by unbelievable technology ranging from genetic manipulation to artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Applying their trademark skepticism, they carefully extrapolate upon each scientific development, leaving no stone unturned as they lay out a vision for the future.
432 pages, Hardcover
First published September 27, 2022
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 126 reviews
December 11, 2022
I have listened to The Skeptics Guide to the Universe for many years--the better part of a decade so I was excited to get the audiobook version of their new book, The Skeptics' Guide to the Future: What Yesterday's Science and Science Fiction Tell Us About the World of Tomorrow.
Overall, I enjoyed the book. It was a bit textbookish at times but that may be symptomatic of covering the science-based topics they delve into. I did find it a good primer on future technologies and gained a much better understanding of how future people/society may have as significant an impact (if not bigger) on what and how technology is used/adopted than the tech itself.
If you are curious about what the future might hold, this is a good book for you. I also wholeheartedly recommend looking up and listening to the weekly podcast.
Overall, I enjoyed the book. It was a bit textbookish at times but that may be symptomatic of covering the science-based topics they delve into. I did find it a good primer on future technologies and gained a much better understanding of how future people/society may have as significant an impact (if not bigger) on what and how technology is used/adopted than the tech itself.
If you are curious about what the future might hold, this is a good book for you. I also wholeheartedly recommend looking up and listening to the weekly podcast.
November 27, 2022
This was less exciting than their eponymous book. There really isn't much to it besides science fiction and extrapolating ongoing research. You can travel to the future, but not the past. The tyranny of the rocket equation and implausibility of FTL travel. Etc. Basically, any sci-fi fan could have written this book. If you skip it, you're not missing anything original.
One theme throughout many chapters in the book was the Novella's sacred cow nonsense about consciousness. They fail to track identity in the transporter problem. Steven thinks the Star Trek transporter only gives the "illusion of transportation" and that "you will be dead" because the person on the planet is only a copy of you. He offers nothing but the undefended assertion that a discontinuity in consciousness prevents the thing on the other end from being you. So who's bed did you wake up in this morning? The premise is ridiculous and isn't defended with any rational argument. This premise fails on a subatomic level, where particles are fungible and so continuity is incoherent. It fails on the cellular level, where even cells turn over. If embodiment in a brain is good enough for Steven, why isn't embodiment in the transporter buffer and beam good enough? It's special pleading. He has a similar misunderstanding with regard to downloaded intelligence.
He also makes a common mistake talking about artificial intelligence. He baselessly claims today's AI are "not actually thinking" without defining what this means or defending the claim in the slightest. He just asserts chat bots like GPT-3 (1) have "no idea what the words mean" yet somehow also (2) know how to use them correctly. I'd love to hear a useful definition of the meaning of words that's compatible with both (1) and (2) simultaneously.
One theme throughout many chapters in the book was the Novella's sacred cow nonsense about consciousness. They fail to track identity in the transporter problem. Steven thinks the Star Trek transporter only gives the "illusion of transportation" and that "you will be dead" because the person on the planet is only a copy of you. He offers nothing but the undefended assertion that a discontinuity in consciousness prevents the thing on the other end from being you. So who's bed did you wake up in this morning? The premise is ridiculous and isn't defended with any rational argument. This premise fails on a subatomic level, where particles are fungible and so continuity is incoherent. It fails on the cellular level, where even cells turn over. If embodiment in a brain is good enough for Steven, why isn't embodiment in the transporter buffer and beam good enough? It's special pleading. He has a similar misunderstanding with regard to downloaded intelligence.
He also makes a common mistake talking about artificial intelligence. He baselessly claims today's AI are "not actually thinking" without defining what this means or defending the claim in the slightest. He just asserts chat bots like GPT-3 (1) have "no idea what the words mean" yet somehow also (2) know how to use them correctly. I'd love to hear a useful definition of the meaning of words that's compatible with both (1) and (2) simultaneously.
January 1, 2023
Though not quite as much as the first book, I enjoyed this romp through speculation about the future. Novella has a great voice. He understands the perils of attempting to predict technological progression, and gives plenty of caveats around the posibilities.
September 24, 2023
Hiç ama hiç beğenmedim. Tüm kitap, sağdan soldan bulduğu icat videolarını Twitter'da paylaşan kolpa "fütürist" kullanıcıları takip etme hissi uyandırıyor. Belki bilim ve teknolojiyle ilgisi olmayan bir okuyucu için kitapta anlatılanlar ilgi çekici olabilir, ama bu alanlarla az biraz ilgisi olan birisi için anlatılanlar zaten bilinen şeyler.
Kitabın başlığında yer alan bilim kurgu bağlantısı konusuysa inanılmaz derece yüzeysel, bahsedilen konuların yer aldığı popüler bir kaç Hollywood yapımının yer yer adının geçirilmesinden ibaret. Zaten ilerleyen sayfalarda yazar bu uyduruk bilimkurgu bağlantılarını da kurmaya zahmet etmiyor. Başlıktaki "The Skeptics’" ifadesi de kitabın içinde yer bulmayan bir kavram, kitap boyunca dile getirilen bir şüpheci ya da sorgulayıcı bakış yok.
Neticede, 2 yıldız bile fazla aslında. Aynı yazarın "The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe" isimli diğer kitabını da merak ediyordum, ama artık etmiyorum, hiç gerek yok.
Kitabın başlığında yer alan bilim kurgu bağlantısı konusuysa inanılmaz derece yüzeysel, bahsedilen konuların yer aldığı popüler bir kaç Hollywood yapımının yer yer adının geçirilmesinden ibaret. Zaten ilerleyen sayfalarda yazar bu uyduruk bilimkurgu bağlantılarını da kurmaya zahmet etmiyor. Başlıktaki "The Skeptics’" ifadesi de kitabın içinde yer bulmayan bir kavram, kitap boyunca dile getirilen bir şüpheci ya da sorgulayıcı bakış yok.
Neticede, 2 yıldız bile fazla aslında. Aynı yazarın "The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe" isimli diğer kitabını da merak ediyordum, ama artık etmiyorum, hiç gerek yok.
October 4, 2022
Можем ли да предскажем какъв ще бъде светът в близкото и далечно бъдеще? Интелектуалният бог д-р Стивън Новела се е заел с нелеката задача в своята нова книга. Авторът е известен научен скептик и създател на легендарните блогове Science-Based Medicine и Neurologica. Според него, траекториите на развитие на различни технологии могат да бъдат проследени и по тях да се съди за света на бъдещето с известни условности. Детайлите са невъзможни за предвиждане, но глобалните тенденции, поне теоретично, биха останали стабилни при липса на неочаквана "креативна деструкция".
Водеща идея в книгата е, че хората надценяват краткосрочното влияние на новите технологии и подценяват дългосрочния им ефект. Необходимо е време за налагане и усъвършестване на новите методи и процедури. Понякога съдбата на дадена технология зависи изцяло от субективното желание на хората да я възприемат. Например, Стив Джобс е смятал, че Segway ще бъде масово възприет като технология за придвижване, но това очевидно не се е случило, което не може да се обясни само с липсата на инфраструктура.
Книгата изобилства от препратки към научнофантастични романи и филми. Д-р Стивън Новела коментира кои от технологиите в тях са възможни и реалистични, както и кои нарушават законите на физиката и биологията. Ето само част от темите, които са коментирани на разбираем език - генетични модификации, стволови клетки, регенерация на органи и безсмъртие, квантови компютри, виртуална реалност, (студен) ядрен синтез, свръхпроводимост при стайна температура, космически асансьори, соларни платна и лазерна пропулсия, терформиране на планети, пътуване по-бързо от скоростта на светлината, изкуствена гравитация и какво ли още не.
Единствената причина, поради която не давам 5 звезди на книгата е, че вече бях запознат с голяма част от концепциите, тъй като буквално всеки ден чета блоговете на автора. Но ако вие за първи път чувате за него, незабавно прочетете "наръчника за бъдещето".
Водеща идея в книгата е, че хората надценяват краткосрочното влияние на новите технологии и подценяват дългосрочния им ефект. Необходимо е време за налагане и усъвършестване на новите методи и процедури. Понякога съдбата на дадена технология зависи изцяло от субективното желание на хората да я възприемат. Например, Стив Джобс е смятал, че Segway ще бъде масово възприет като технология за придвижване, но това очевидно не се е случило, което не може да се обясни само с липсата на инфраструктура.
Книгата изобилства от препратки към научнофантастични романи и филми. Д-р Стивън Новела коментира кои от технологиите в тях са възможни и реалистични, както и кои нарушават законите на физиката и биологията. Ето само част от темите, които са коментирани на разбираем език - генетични модификации, стволови клетки, регенерация на органи и безсмъртие, квантови компютри, виртуална реалност, (студен) ядрен синтез, свръхпроводимост при стайна температура, космически асансьори, соларни платна и лазерна пропулсия, терформиране на планети, пътуване по-бързо от скоростта на светлината, изкуствена гравитация и какво ли още не.
Единствената причина, поради която не давам 5 звезди на книгата е, че вече бях запознат с голяма част от концепциите, тъй като буквално всеки ден чета блоговете на автора. Но ако вие за първи път чувате за него, незабавно прочетете "наръчника за бъдещето".
December 1, 2022
There are two kinds of skeptics. Deep thinkers who challenge even their own axiomatic thinking, and self-satisified types who wield their lack of creativity as a club on anybody who dares challenge their worldview. You can guess from my rating which one the author falls into.
The main problem is Novella's view of the future has no effort or consideration behind it. Rather than asking what innovations we might be missing, like a universal translator, or how social movements might change the future, we get an overview of the predicted innovations of the past, whether they happened, and why they did or didn't, and then a chapter on whether Hollywood tech is possible.
If I'm hard on the author it's because I think if he were willing to unpack and challenge his assumptions about the future, he'd write a better book.
The main problem is Novella's view of the future has no effort or consideration behind it. Rather than asking what innovations we might be missing, like a universal translator, or how social movements might change the future, we get an overview of the predicted innovations of the past, whether they happened, and why they did or didn't, and then a chapter on whether Hollywood tech is possible.
If I'm hard on the author it's because I think if he were willing to unpack and challenge his assumptions about the future, he'd write a better book.
May 22, 2023
Great book to read - really well narrated by the author. I learned a lot of new information about the past, present and futur of technology! The science got pretty complicated at a few moments and I tuned out, but a pretty clear read for anyone with an interest in science and sociology! Would recommend!
February 2, 2023
This book was OK. It seemed reasonably well-researched and made some interesting points, though I feel that there was some rigidity in their thinking about what is and is not possible. I want to say it sounds amateurish, but in some ways that is a good thing since "professional" futurists all feel like slick grifters overselling their vision of the future. Counter-intuitively, by being worse at the slickness aspects, I feel like they have more credibility than your average futurist.
One take-away that has stuck with me since reading this book is that I am now much more explicitly aware of the problem in sci-fi where science fiction writers add in some new technology or some change and then basically tell a story of "today's society, but with the thing changed", when in fact changing that one thing would have profound consequences. You have teleportation technology and people use it to get from space to the ground, but you haven't totally re-designed your cities around it? You don't just teleport babies directly out of the womb? You know that in some cases it's possible to fully clone adult humans (memories intact) with a transporter but you don't use that to like... make a device that copies people? It would be nice to have a name for this to reify it, because it really shows up everywhere.
My biggest problem with the book is that the authors come off as way over-confident about many of these extremely speculative things. They seem aware of the fact that almost all long-term predictions are extremely inaccurate, and yet I get the impression that they have a bunch of well-worn tracks of what is and is not plausible, and we're seeing the end result of that. I'm much more skeptical of "this is not possible" than "this is possible", though I do find it interesting to hear about what the exact challenges are. I think they failed to convey the degree to which many of the "this is implausible / impossible" ideas are uncertain.
3.5 of 5 stars
One take-away that has stuck with me since reading this book is that I am now much more explicitly aware of the problem in sci-fi where science fiction writers add in some new technology or some change and then basically tell a story of "today's society, but with the thing changed", when in fact changing that one thing would have profound consequences. You have teleportation technology and people use it to get from space to the ground, but you haven't totally re-designed your cities around it? You don't just teleport babies directly out of the womb? You know that in some cases it's possible to fully clone adult humans (memories intact) with a transporter but you don't use that to like... make a device that copies people? It would be nice to have a name for this to reify it, because it really shows up everywhere.
My biggest problem with the book is that the authors come off as way over-confident about many of these extremely speculative things. They seem aware of the fact that almost all long-term predictions are extremely inaccurate, and yet I get the impression that they have a bunch of well-worn tracks of what is and is not plausible, and we're seeing the end result of that. I'm much more skeptical of "this is not possible" than "this is possible", though I do find it interesting to hear about what the exact challenges are. I think they failed to convey the degree to which many of the "this is implausible / impossible" ideas are uncertain.
3.5 of 5 stars
October 12, 2022
In late September, The Skeptics Guide to the Future was released, and I with a preorder read it immediately. The book first examines the ways science fiction of the past got the future wrong, and looks for patterns into the errors. The authors then examine our future’s prospects in the short, medium, and long term. The authors (the brothers Novella) host two podcasts together; a long-running one on science and critical thinking, and another on science fiction reviews. This project nicely converges them, because they’re fairly restrained in the short term, and only engage in wild speculation over the long term while reiterating we have no idea what’s in store. The tempered enthusiasm is consistent throughout the text; the authors are optimistic about the prospects for gene therapy and possibly growing new organs for those whose parts have failed, but caution that there’s much about development we don’t understand. A liver won’t simply grow in a petri dish: its cells are looking for context. Somehow the body’s environment guides organ developments in concert. Although the authors point out that older technologies often stay in place because they work so well, despite the promotion of more technologically sophisticated rivals, their section on transportation ignores the idea that we might return to designing cities that humans are capable of navigating on foot, rather than continuing to try to create technological solutions to the manifest stupidity, the resource-draining and human-life-sucking spectre that is sprawl. One curiosity I noticed was the authors’ assertion that solar and wind are cheaper than coal, which is so absurd on the face of it that I suspect they’re adding the costs of environmental pollution, etc. They did acknowledge the viability of nuclear, though, especially with Gen-IV reactors that not only produce near-zero waste, but can process prior generations’ waste as fuel. There are generous comparisons to SF projections throughout, especially Asimov’s Foundation. Recommended if you’re into futurism, but I enjoyed the Novellas’ Skeptics Guide to the Universe much better.
March 23, 2023
The Skeptics Guide to the Future is the second book by the hosts of the excellent podcast The Skeptics Guide to the Universe. In it, the skeptical rogues attempt to envision the future of various technologies in the not-to-distant, mid and far distant futures.
Thinking about the future is an interesting thought experiment and it’s fun to hear what people think the future may be like. The problem is that people are terrible at this task. We don’t have flying cars or jetpacks, food pills or cities under the ocean, and as for the colonization of space the only celestial body humans have ever visited is the moon and we haven’t been back since 1972.
The skeptical rogues take a different approach than most futurists though and attempt to apply learning from past mistakes of future predictions to construct a more realistic vision of the future. In doing so they look at the near, mid and far futures each of which, by necessity, becomes ever more speculative.
I thought they did quite a good job with the book and feel like their writing has improved significantly since their first book.
I have two criticisms and they are common to all futurists … they are techno-optimists, but if the history tells us anything it’s that technology is nearly always a double-edged sword and results unintended consequences. The Skeptics cover a few negative aspects of these future technologies, but their coverage is overwhelmingly positive.
As with every other futurist … their imagination ends where the natural world begins. Presumably because ‘nature’ isn’t sufficiently high tech. The closest the Skeptics come in this regard is the ‘uplift’ of various species, but for me this barely counts. The experience of the natural world plays a significant role in the lives of many people. I suppose in the mind of futurists they’ll have to satisfy their biophilia through the use of VR headsets.
Thinking about the future is an interesting thought experiment and it’s fun to hear what people think the future may be like. The problem is that people are terrible at this task. We don’t have flying cars or jetpacks, food pills or cities under the ocean, and as for the colonization of space the only celestial body humans have ever visited is the moon and we haven’t been back since 1972.
The skeptical rogues take a different approach than most futurists though and attempt to apply learning from past mistakes of future predictions to construct a more realistic vision of the future. In doing so they look at the near, mid and far futures each of which, by necessity, becomes ever more speculative.
I thought they did quite a good job with the book and feel like their writing has improved significantly since their first book.
I have two criticisms and they are common to all futurists … they are techno-optimists, but if the history tells us anything it’s that technology is nearly always a double-edged sword and results unintended consequences. The Skeptics cover a few negative aspects of these future technologies, but their coverage is overwhelmingly positive.
As with every other futurist … their imagination ends where the natural world begins. Presumably because ‘nature’ isn’t sufficiently high tech. The closest the Skeptics come in this regard is the ‘uplift’ of various species, but for me this barely counts. The experience of the natural world plays a significant role in the lives of many people. I suppose in the mind of futurists they’ll have to satisfy their biophilia through the use of VR headsets.
December 9, 2022
A mile wide, an inch deep.
February 2, 2023
EDIT: Apparently, this is my 500th review on Goodreads!!! Good for me.
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Agree with other reviewers who noted this book isn't as life-changing as the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, but still a great time. Some of the topics I learned a lot of new stuff, and others I was already pretty familiar with. One of the strengths of the book in my view is the writing style: I felt throughout the book that I was just in a conversation with my college friends about whatever future speculation was on our minds (granted, this book gets much more technical than we would when just shooting the shit and drinking).
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Agree with other reviewers who noted this book isn't as life-changing as the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, but still a great time. Some of the topics I learned a lot of new stuff, and others I was already pretty familiar with. One of the strengths of the book in my view is the writing style: I felt throughout the book that I was just in a conversation with my college friends about whatever future speculation was on our minds (granted, this book gets much more technical than we would when just shooting the shit and drinking).
May 18, 2023
It's a very well-written overview of the pitfalls of futurism, and science fiction meeting science fact. But if you're a dyed-in-the-wool super geek like myself, much this you will find very familiar and obvious, though I did appreciate the updates and explanations of certain areas with which I am not familiar. I also think they passed up a few chances to explore key sci fi ideas, but I suppose you have to draw the line somewhere...as it is very comprehensive and rather long as it is.
May 28, 2024
It's ok.
My main problem is that it feels "shallow" or does not go deep enough into the topics it covers. Each chapter feels like a blog entry with few sources. It's an enjoyable read, but I expected something more specific.
My main problem is that it feels "shallow" or does not go deep enough into the topics it covers. Each chapter feels like a blog entry with few sources. It's an enjoyable read, but I expected something more specific.
April 25, 2024
Fascinating concept. Bought this on my USA trip in 2023, possibly one of the many I bought in Powell's City of Books in Portland, OR.
Really enjoyed most of it, solid science background, good ideas of what could happen within the bounds of possibilities. Also wisely noting, regularly, that the business of future guessing is not always accurate, and many life changing technologies come from unlikely sources and developments. I struggled towards the end but that's cos my artscentric brain gets lost when I delve into too much science. Good read indeed!
Really enjoyed most of it, solid science background, good ideas of what could happen within the bounds of possibilities. Also wisely noting, regularly, that the business of future guessing is not always accurate, and many life changing technologies come from unlikely sources and developments. I struggled towards the end but that's cos my artscentric brain gets lost when I delve into too much science. Good read indeed!
December 18, 2023
Interesting, survey of many classic sci-fi tropes, technologies, and techniques and their viability in the near and distant future.
April 30, 2023
A friend recommended The Skeptics' Guide to the Future. He thought I might appreciate it, since I'm a professional futurist.
I found it to be an odd and not very interesting book. Perhaps I'm missing something, because I don't know the author, who apparently podcasts and writes other books. Or maybe I'm biased by working in futures every day, while this tome seems aimed at readers new to the field.
Most of the book tries to anticipate future developments in science and technology. Those chapters will be interesting to people interested in the topic and who have never read anything about it. You'll read about spaceflight, materials, medicine, and so on.
That core of the book is set up by an introduction, which lights into what the author(s) think(s) of as futures thinking. This part offers various examples of forecasts that didn't pan out. Unfortunately the examples are cherry picked, some misfires from science fiction and pop culture.
We don't get much from how these kinds of sources either anticipated future developments accurately (think of Jules Verne imagining a lunar mission starting from Florida and landing in the ocean) or provoked people to make new things in imitation (the Star Trek comunicator->the flipphone). More, there isn’t a single glance at the actual futuring profession. There isn't a whiff of reflection on how people have been doing this work intellectually and practically for decades. You can see the results of this unfortunate posture when the opening section announces a series of Fallacies (capitalized in original) which are a) blindingly obvious and b) known to we futurists. For example, “Assuming there is one pattern of technological change or adoption. Rather, the future will be multifaceted.” (14) This is why people in our business refer to futures, plural.
The focus on science and especially tech which takes up the bulk of the book is ultimately extremely narrow. Other subjects fall by the wayside. Climate change barely appears, for example. There’s next to nothing on race or gender. Economics pops up only for a few notes on individual technologies’ business cases. Politics seems utterly absent, with all developments taking place in a void.
Now, the book ends with an interesting section, which seems to excuse everything which went before:
A larger problem for me, as an academic, is that there isn’t a lot of research in the book. Some chapters have just two, or even one citations - and those might be an encyclopedia or a Hollywood movie. The chapters accordingly feel like a smart person telling you their thoughts over a beer, or in an airport.
Hollywood movies: the sf here is mostly movies and tv. There isn’t a lot of written material, which is strange, given the richness of textual science fiction.
Summing up: if you're new to futures thinking, or if you're especially interested in what's next with science and technology, this book might be a good fit. (I'd recommend Soonish instead, as both deeper and funnier; here's our book club's reading of it). Otherwise, give it a miss.
I found it to be an odd and not very interesting book. Perhaps I'm missing something, because I don't know the author, who apparently podcasts and writes other books. Or maybe I'm biased by working in futures every day, while this tome seems aimed at readers new to the field.
Most of the book tries to anticipate future developments in science and technology. Those chapters will be interesting to people interested in the topic and who have never read anything about it. You'll read about spaceflight, materials, medicine, and so on.
That core of the book is set up by an introduction, which lights into what the author(s) think(s) of as futures thinking. This part offers various examples of forecasts that didn't pan out. Unfortunately the examples are cherry picked, some misfires from science fiction and pop culture.
We don't get much from how these kinds of sources either anticipated future developments accurately (think of Jules Verne imagining a lunar mission starting from Florida and landing in the ocean) or provoked people to make new things in imitation (the Star Trek comunicator->the flipphone). More, there isn’t a single glance at the actual futuring profession. There isn't a whiff of reflection on how people have been doing this work intellectually and practically for decades. You can see the results of this unfortunate posture when the opening section announces a series of Fallacies (capitalized in original) which are a) blindingly obvious and b) known to we futurists. For example, “Assuming there is one pattern of technological change or adoption. Rather, the future will be multifaceted.” (14) This is why people in our business refer to futures, plural.
The focus on science and especially tech which takes up the bulk of the book is ultimately extremely narrow. Other subjects fall by the wayside. Climate change barely appears, for example. There’s next to nothing on race or gender. Economics pops up only for a few notes on individual technologies’ business cases. Politics seems utterly absent, with all developments taking place in a void.
Now, the book ends with an interesting section, which seems to excuse everything which went before:
Ultimately, technology is easier to predict than people, making the most important future advances those in critical thinking, philosophy, and even psychology. The people in the future will not be us. Who will they be?In other words, we want full allowances for anything we forecast incorrectly. And we didn't do non-STEM topics because they're too hard. Yikes. There is so much wrong with this conclusion, beyond its cheesiness. It undoes everything that went before, both by trumping tech with non-tech forces, then throwing hands up to say futuring is impossible.
The only thing that is certain about the future is that it will be different in ways we cannot currently imagine and will be occupied by people who think we are quaint and perhaps even barbaric. Things will be different that we didn't even know could be, or perhaps didn't even know were things.
But we will get there, slowly. We will craft the future one day at a time. (381)
A larger problem for me, as an academic, is that there isn’t a lot of research in the book. Some chapters have just two, or even one citations - and those might be an encyclopedia or a Hollywood movie. The chapters accordingly feel like a smart person telling you their thoughts over a beer, or in an airport.
Hollywood movies: the sf here is mostly movies and tv. There isn’t a lot of written material, which is strange, given the richness of textual science fiction.
Summing up: if you're new to futures thinking, or if you're especially interested in what's next with science and technology, this book might be a good fit. (I'd recommend Soonish instead, as both deeper and funnier; here's our book club's reading of it). Otherwise, give it a miss.
November 17, 2022
In one sense, if we’re going to accept the authors’ conclusion that humanity has a very poor track record of predicting the future—as is surely the case, since we’re not all, by now, riding around in flying cars and giving orders to robotic servants—then why would we want to read another book about the future that will almost certainly be similarly misguided?
This is a good question to ask yourself, especially when you start reading about fully conscious general AI, Matrix-like simulations of the universe, and uploading your mind to a computer. Given what the authors tell us in the first part of the book about the difficulties of predicting the future, it’s hard to then take whatever comes after too seriously.
There’s another concern. When predicting the future, there are, in general, two types of errors you can make: (1) failing to predict things that actually materialize, and (2) predicting things that never materialize. As a rule, committing the first type of error has the tendency to make you look a lot more boneheaded, as when Ken Olsen, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said in 1977 that “there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
Well, it seems to me that the authors are going out of their way to avoid this type of error and, as a result, are more prone to the second type of error (e.g., predicting things like computers that will achieve consciousness). The reason is easy to see: If computers do not achieve consciousness, the authors save face because there’s always the possibility that it will happen at some point in the future. The authors will not be proven wrong, they’ll just be shown to be overly ambitious in their predictive timeline. But if they predict that computers will NOT achieve consciousness, and computers do achieve this, then the authors will be on record as being blatantly wrong. So every incentive tells them to make wilder predictions than they otherwise might.
The counter-argument is that no one a century ago would have predicted that we would all be carrying around pocket-sized supercomputers with instant access to all human knowledge and the ability to video call almost anyone anywhere in the world near-instantaneously. If we managed to do that in 100 years, maybe we can upload our consciousness to a computer in another 100 years. But I don’t think this is currently predictable, and is probably unlikely.
The bottom line is that the future is nearly impossible to predict because science and technology develop in unexpected ways, unanticipated obstacles crop up, the complexity of overcoming technological hurdles is almost always underestimated, and cultural and moral attitudes to our technology change in ways difficult to predict. All of this is good reason to not have too much confidence in any future predictions, especially as the future becomes increasingly remote.
Even so, at the very least, this book is a fascinating exploration of current technology and an interesting take on where that technology may eventually lead, especially in the short-term. You’ll have plenty to think about and plenty of material for your next science fiction novel.
Also, by analyzing all the reasons why past predictions have failed, there is a chance that the authors are in fact on more solid footing, and that the predictions they make are more likely to materialize as outlined. Either way, you’re guaranteed to get an entertaining tour of the frontiers of science, including the future prospects for genetic engineering, robotics, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, space travel, and more. But just keep in mind that if it’s difficult for the experts in each scientific field to make accurate predictions, it’s probably more so for an author seeking to predict the trajectory of every scientific field.
This is a good question to ask yourself, especially when you start reading about fully conscious general AI, Matrix-like simulations of the universe, and uploading your mind to a computer. Given what the authors tell us in the first part of the book about the difficulties of predicting the future, it’s hard to then take whatever comes after too seriously.
There’s another concern. When predicting the future, there are, in general, two types of errors you can make: (1) failing to predict things that actually materialize, and (2) predicting things that never materialize. As a rule, committing the first type of error has the tendency to make you look a lot more boneheaded, as when Ken Olsen, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said in 1977 that “there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
Well, it seems to me that the authors are going out of their way to avoid this type of error and, as a result, are more prone to the second type of error (e.g., predicting things like computers that will achieve consciousness). The reason is easy to see: If computers do not achieve consciousness, the authors save face because there’s always the possibility that it will happen at some point in the future. The authors will not be proven wrong, they’ll just be shown to be overly ambitious in their predictive timeline. But if they predict that computers will NOT achieve consciousness, and computers do achieve this, then the authors will be on record as being blatantly wrong. So every incentive tells them to make wilder predictions than they otherwise might.
The counter-argument is that no one a century ago would have predicted that we would all be carrying around pocket-sized supercomputers with instant access to all human knowledge and the ability to video call almost anyone anywhere in the world near-instantaneously. If we managed to do that in 100 years, maybe we can upload our consciousness to a computer in another 100 years. But I don’t think this is currently predictable, and is probably unlikely.
The bottom line is that the future is nearly impossible to predict because science and technology develop in unexpected ways, unanticipated obstacles crop up, the complexity of overcoming technological hurdles is almost always underestimated, and cultural and moral attitudes to our technology change in ways difficult to predict. All of this is good reason to not have too much confidence in any future predictions, especially as the future becomes increasingly remote.
Even so, at the very least, this book is a fascinating exploration of current technology and an interesting take on where that technology may eventually lead, especially in the short-term. You’ll have plenty to think about and plenty of material for your next science fiction novel.
Also, by analyzing all the reasons why past predictions have failed, there is a chance that the authors are in fact on more solid footing, and that the predictions they make are more likely to materialize as outlined. Either way, you’re guaranteed to get an entertaining tour of the frontiers of science, including the future prospects for genetic engineering, robotics, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, space travel, and more. But just keep in mind that if it’s difficult for the experts in each scientific field to make accurate predictions, it’s probably more so for an author seeking to predict the trajectory of every scientific field.
November 13, 2022
[Imported automatically from my blog. Some formatting there may not have translated here.]
An impulse pickup at the Portsmouth Public Library. I mean, that's kind of a neat cover, right? And I like to think of myself as a skeptic, I'm interested in the future, so it's as if this book was written for me.
Although I'm not sure about that apostrophe in the title: shouldn't it be Skeptic's?
And I'm also seeing the primary author identified as "Dr. Steven Novella" on the cover as kind of a warning flag. He's a medical doctor, fine. Which gives him zero additional credibility as a futurist. It doesn't help that it seems that people identifying themselves as doctors on book covers tend to be quacks, charlatans, and grifters.
But the book is pretty good. It's very wide ranging. The first section discusses where trends in today's tech might take us: genetic manipulation, stem cells, brain-machine interfaces, robotics, quantum computing, AI, self-driving cars, material science, various forms of augmented reality, wearable tech, additive manufacturing, energy production. Then a little bit further out: fusion, nanotech, synthetic life, room-temperature superconductors, space elevators. Space travel: advanced rocketry, solar sails, colonization, terraforming. And finally, an entertaining section (mostly) debunking classic science fiction gadgetry: magical energy sources, FTL spaceships, artificial gravity, transporters, immortality, uploaded digital consciousness.
Well, that last one seems doable, actually.
There are a lot of fun shout-outs to science fiction, old and new, books, TV shows, and movies. The authors are SF fans, obviously. And they're not afraid to throw out actual numbers: gigapascals, millikelvins, megajoules; that's nice. (No formulas, though. It is taboo for popular science books to have formulas.) I'd recommend this book especially to STEM-bright high school kids who are also science fiction geeks; there might be dozens out there.
Further quibbles: Despite the title, the authors are not as skeptical as (actual physicist) Sabine Hossenfelder about quantum computing. I caught one minor typo (can't find it now, sorry). And (p. 61) Axlotl tanks in the Dune series grew entire bodies, gholas and face dancers, not replacement organs.
And (sigh) not a word about my favorite panacea for global warming: artificial photosynthesis used for carbon capture. Not too much at all about climate change, or the economic/political issues involved in progress toward a bright and shiny future.
September 5, 2022
My thanks to both NetGalley and the publisher Grand Central Publishing for an advance copy of this book about trying to guess about the world that is too come, and how wrong people can be.
Science fiction is always trying to look forward, the only problem is that much of the baggage of the present influences thoughts about the future. Rocket cars and hover skateboards are probably the first things that come to mind that people were promised. These of course were planned when gas was a quarter, seatbelts weren't optional, speed limits suggested, and insurance companies didn't have as much say. In The Skeptics' Guide to the Future: What Yesterday's Science and Science Fiction Tell Us About the World of Tomorrow Doctor Steven Novella with Bob and Jay Novella look at what futurists and writers of science fiction thought our futures would hold, what they missed, and the scientific reality we might be moving toward.
The book begins with what could be a scene from the Jetsons. A robot helps a man get dressed, ultraviolet light cleans his teeth, children going to school via pneumatic tubes, followed by a driverless trip in a atomic powered super car. Complete with the supportive wife who serves breakfast in pill form, and seems to have nothing else to do for the rest of the day. And I am sure, though I hate to show my bias, but I am going to guess they are white. That was a the view of the future from the 1950's, something that would be in the background of most stories featured in Analog or other magazines of speculative fiction from the era. The book then goes into what thoughts of the future would be like, and the technology involoved, or in many cases what technology never even occurred to these seers of the future. The book also does a little future forcasting discussing nanotechnology, space elevators, chips cell phones and more.
Some parts of this book are very funny, some are sad, as the future is nothing like many people planned. Dr. Novella's writing style is very informative with an abiilty to discuss various scienes and technology with clear, consice information so that the reader never feels lectured at or confused and bored. He also looks at the future with, as in the title, a sceptic's eye, explaing the human and physical cost of technology, the uses, and resources needed, and finally if it makes sense to even build or try something that might be more detrimental than useful. An interesting way to look at the future, one that is both nostalgic and hopeful.
A book for both science and science fiction fans, and even scholars interested in the genre of speculative fiction. Also for writers who might want to write books about alternative worlds, where science zigged and not zagged. This is the second book that I have read by the author and found it very fun and informative. I look forward to more in the series.
Science fiction is always trying to look forward, the only problem is that much of the baggage of the present influences thoughts about the future. Rocket cars and hover skateboards are probably the first things that come to mind that people were promised. These of course were planned when gas was a quarter, seatbelts weren't optional, speed limits suggested, and insurance companies didn't have as much say. In The Skeptics' Guide to the Future: What Yesterday's Science and Science Fiction Tell Us About the World of Tomorrow Doctor Steven Novella with Bob and Jay Novella look at what futurists and writers of science fiction thought our futures would hold, what they missed, and the scientific reality we might be moving toward.
The book begins with what could be a scene from the Jetsons. A robot helps a man get dressed, ultraviolet light cleans his teeth, children going to school via pneumatic tubes, followed by a driverless trip in a atomic powered super car. Complete with the supportive wife who serves breakfast in pill form, and seems to have nothing else to do for the rest of the day. And I am sure, though I hate to show my bias, but I am going to guess they are white. That was a the view of the future from the 1950's, something that would be in the background of most stories featured in Analog or other magazines of speculative fiction from the era. The book then goes into what thoughts of the future would be like, and the technology involoved, or in many cases what technology never even occurred to these seers of the future. The book also does a little future forcasting discussing nanotechnology, space elevators, chips cell phones and more.
Some parts of this book are very funny, some are sad, as the future is nothing like many people planned. Dr. Novella's writing style is very informative with an abiilty to discuss various scienes and technology with clear, consice information so that the reader never feels lectured at or confused and bored. He also looks at the future with, as in the title, a sceptic's eye, explaing the human and physical cost of technology, the uses, and resources needed, and finally if it makes sense to even build or try something that might be more detrimental than useful. An interesting way to look at the future, one that is both nostalgic and hopeful.
A book for both science and science fiction fans, and even scholars interested in the genre of speculative fiction. Also for writers who might want to write books about alternative worlds, where science zigged and not zagged. This is the second book that I have read by the author and found it very fun and informative. I look forward to more in the series.
November 12, 2022
Predictions about how future technology will develop have been around for as long as we've had a sense that such things advance and, in that sense, this is nothing new. But it has the advantage of a strong scientific base and of devoting the first part of the book to why such predictions are so often wrong. For that very reason, it has far fewer predicted dates for when things are likely to be achieved than such books often do - predicting that things will be easier than they turn out is a common error - and also includes caveats along the lines of "just because we could, doesn't mean we'll want to".
A significant portion is also devoted to the key developing technologies of today, such as stem cells and self-driving cars, where we can reasonably confident that a demand exists and that (at some point, if not necessarily soon) there will be some major developments that will impact our way of life. After that, we're into more speculative technology that may not mature for decades or centuries, but that should be attainable in the long term.
Then there's a section on space travel, explaining why this is rather harder than most science fiction stories would imply. Finally, the writers take a look at common technology in science fiction, most of which also turns out to be a lot less plausible than we might hope. On the other hand, there are plausible future developments that SF tends to avoid using (unless it's the entire point of the story), because the social changes are too unpredictable.
In some respects, the way we envisage the future is probably not radical enough, but in others, it's likely too much. Does this book strike a perfect balance between the two? Well, probably not, because that's likely impossible and we don't know what new breakthrough might (or might not) be around the corner. But this is a useful guide to the possibilities and limitations of future change and it's written in a clear and accessible style that makes for a quick and easy read without trimming down the facts or going overboard on the fine detail.
A significant portion is also devoted to the key developing technologies of today, such as stem cells and self-driving cars, where we can reasonably confident that a demand exists and that (at some point, if not necessarily soon) there will be some major developments that will impact our way of life. After that, we're into more speculative technology that may not mature for decades or centuries, but that should be attainable in the long term.
Then there's a section on space travel, explaining why this is rather harder than most science fiction stories would imply. Finally, the writers take a look at common technology in science fiction, most of which also turns out to be a lot less plausible than we might hope. On the other hand, there are plausible future developments that SF tends to avoid using (unless it's the entire point of the story), because the social changes are too unpredictable.
In some respects, the way we envisage the future is probably not radical enough, but in others, it's likely too much. Does this book strike a perfect balance between the two? Well, probably not, because that's likely impossible and we don't know what new breakthrough might (or might not) be around the corner. But this is a useful guide to the possibilities and limitations of future change and it's written in a clear and accessible style that makes for a quick and easy read without trimming down the facts or going overboard on the fine detail.
December 24, 2022
Shallow futurism married to dull sci-fi.
This one is super disappointing - I love Dr. Novella’s work on the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast, and some of the deep dives he does on his blog, but this was seriously challenging to not abandon. Anyone into sci-fi books and movies should be especially hesitant to pick this up - it’s all going to be a rehash of the last few decades of genre cliches, at least for the first half.
The first half is particularly dull. This one sees Novella talking about current tech (self-driving cars, stem cells, gene manipulation, etc.), which tended to be at a YA level of complexity, and then extrapolating that tech far into the future. The initial explanation will be trite to anyone who has read the news in the last 5 years, and the extrapolations are straight out of sci-fi films.
Early on, Novella gestures at the fact that just because a tech can work doesn’t mean it will take off if society rejects it or certain uses of it (e.g., we don’t clone people just because we can), but the predictions never get into an interesting level of discussion. It’s impossible to read these sections, and not think “Well maybe, but you haven’t given me any reason to think your version is likely.” There’s just nothing here that rises above the level of mainstream sci-fi, and there’s none of the cutting skepticism and insights that Novella is known for.
The writing in this half doesn’t do the book any favours either. The punch from Novella’s blog is absent, with the book feeling over-smooth as if it was edited by committee and had all the chunky/interesting bits sandblasted off. It’s also peppered with references to sci-fi books and movies that will mean nothing to non-fans and are obvious to fans.
There are actual sci-fi shorts interspersed between some chapters, but I ended up skipping these after the first. They seemed present merely to occupy pages.
The second half is significantly better. It’s about future tech, and Novella actually applies some skepticism here and the writing seems much improved. I’m not sure if Novella found his groove here, or if he ejected one or both of the co-writers (which are much less prominently featured on the cover), but the whole book could’ve used whatever the case.
This one is super disappointing - I love Dr. Novella’s work on the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast, and some of the deep dives he does on his blog, but this was seriously challenging to not abandon. Anyone into sci-fi books and movies should be especially hesitant to pick this up - it’s all going to be a rehash of the last few decades of genre cliches, at least for the first half.
The first half is particularly dull. This one sees Novella talking about current tech (self-driving cars, stem cells, gene manipulation, etc.), which tended to be at a YA level of complexity, and then extrapolating that tech far into the future. The initial explanation will be trite to anyone who has read the news in the last 5 years, and the extrapolations are straight out of sci-fi films.
Early on, Novella gestures at the fact that just because a tech can work doesn’t mean it will take off if society rejects it or certain uses of it (e.g., we don’t clone people just because we can), but the predictions never get into an interesting level of discussion. It’s impossible to read these sections, and not think “Well maybe, but you haven’t given me any reason to think your version is likely.” There’s just nothing here that rises above the level of mainstream sci-fi, and there’s none of the cutting skepticism and insights that Novella is known for.
The writing in this half doesn’t do the book any favours either. The punch from Novella’s blog is absent, with the book feeling over-smooth as if it was edited by committee and had all the chunky/interesting bits sandblasted off. It’s also peppered with references to sci-fi books and movies that will mean nothing to non-fans and are obvious to fans.
There are actual sci-fi shorts interspersed between some chapters, but I ended up skipping these after the first. They seemed present merely to occupy pages.
The second half is significantly better. It’s about future tech, and Novella actually applies some skepticism here and the writing seems much improved. I’m not sure if Novella found his groove here, or if he ejected one or both of the co-writers (which are much less prominently featured on the cover), but the whole book could’ve used whatever the case.
May 18, 2023
This book is based on a long-running podcast series. I had no idea the podcast existed, but I'll check it out. This was an intriguing and entertaining look at what the future will be like—not only in terms of science and medicine but also in terms of philosophy, ethics, and sociology. I didn't take notes, but here's a bit of what I learned:
Solar power: This change is already happening and will continue to happen because solar has the lowest startup costs of any energy source. It will likely become less important as we move to other planets that get less sunlight.
Hydrogen power: For about twenty years, people have been saying that the hydrogen revolution is five years away. It may never happen because the power source may be too bulky to be practical. There would have to be a breakthrough in a whole new direction rather than slow, steady progress. This type of breakthrough is possible (it happened with digitization and cell phones and the internet), but it certainly isn't guaranteed.
Nuclear power: The new nuclear power plants make energy out of the nuclear waste from old nuclear power plants. And some of the new plants supposedly cannot melt down. But the startup costs are still high. The authors don't mention anything about terrorists possibly taking over these types of plants.
Solar sails: These will be ready in a few years. They're a great way to power a spaceship because there's no need to carry fuel.
Time travel, forward motion: This is already happening at a rate of one second per second. It might be possible to travel forward in time at a faster rate. Also, it might be possible to alter how we experience time, so a person's life might seem to last much longer than it actually does.
Time travel, backward motion: This breaks the laws of physics and is therefore unlikely.
Tricorders: These already exist! The first flip phones were based on the tricorder idea.
Deep space travel: Probably unlikely until humans become entirely nonbiological. So maybe not for centuries, if ever.
Solar power: This change is already happening and will continue to happen because solar has the lowest startup costs of any energy source. It will likely become less important as we move to other planets that get less sunlight.
Hydrogen power: For about twenty years, people have been saying that the hydrogen revolution is five years away. It may never happen because the power source may be too bulky to be practical. There would have to be a breakthrough in a whole new direction rather than slow, steady progress. This type of breakthrough is possible (it happened with digitization and cell phones and the internet), but it certainly isn't guaranteed.
Nuclear power: The new nuclear power plants make energy out of the nuclear waste from old nuclear power plants. And some of the new plants supposedly cannot melt down. But the startup costs are still high. The authors don't mention anything about terrorists possibly taking over these types of plants.
Solar sails: These will be ready in a few years. They're a great way to power a spaceship because there's no need to carry fuel.
Time travel, forward motion: This is already happening at a rate of one second per second. It might be possible to travel forward in time at a faster rate. Also, it might be possible to alter how we experience time, so a person's life might seem to last much longer than it actually does.
Time travel, backward motion: This breaks the laws of physics and is therefore unlikely.
Tricorders: These already exist! The first flip phones were based on the tricorder idea.
Deep space travel: Probably unlikely until humans become entirely nonbiological. So maybe not for centuries, if ever.
October 1, 2023
This is a book about futurism, a genre that always seems to find me, but I never seek out specifically. I am deeply interested in science and technology, but I don't tend to find people speculating or trying to seriously predict things that interesting.
It's so easy to get swept up with your own ideas and biases, miss crucial aspects that will render the prediction irrelevant even if technically accurate or not putting the technology in a societal context.
So what I really liked most about this book is that it addressed this exact thing head-on. They highlighted the common futuristic pitfalls and tried to steer clear of them or being explicit when they were doing far-out speculations versus a sensible interpretation of the current technological progress and pace.
The topics cover space travel, various biology and medical advances, artificial intelligence, robotics, material science, fusion, space elevators and more.
The final section goes over the technologies that form the staple of science fiction -- faster-than-light travel, time travel, teleportation, lightsabers etc.
The book is explicitly cautious around commonly-made extrapolations that simply don't have the evidence to bear out (and provides many examples of this folly from the past) about things that simply won't ever happen unless we discover new laws of physics or elements and/or combinations thereof. And puts the likelihood of that in the right context.
Whenever they touched upon an area where I had some deeper knowledge, I haven't found any glaring issues -- more simplifications that weren't technically correct, but were probably right in the context of the book and didn't change the final outcome anyway. That makes me think that the rest of their research is similarly solid although the authors are not expects in most of the areas they've researched.
Overall, it is a great and easy-to-read overview of where we are right now, what's likely to expect in the relatively near future and what might come in the longer term.
It's so easy to get swept up with your own ideas and biases, miss crucial aspects that will render the prediction irrelevant even if technically accurate or not putting the technology in a societal context.
So what I really liked most about this book is that it addressed this exact thing head-on. They highlighted the common futuristic pitfalls and tried to steer clear of them or being explicit when they were doing far-out speculations versus a sensible interpretation of the current technological progress and pace.
The topics cover space travel, various biology and medical advances, artificial intelligence, robotics, material science, fusion, space elevators and more.
The final section goes over the technologies that form the staple of science fiction -- faster-than-light travel, time travel, teleportation, lightsabers etc.
The book is explicitly cautious around commonly-made extrapolations that simply don't have the evidence to bear out (and provides many examples of this folly from the past) about things that simply won't ever happen unless we discover new laws of physics or elements and/or combinations thereof. And puts the likelihood of that in the right context.
Whenever they touched upon an area where I had some deeper knowledge, I haven't found any glaring issues -- more simplifications that weren't technically correct, but were probably right in the context of the book and didn't change the final outcome anyway. That makes me think that the rest of their research is similarly solid although the authors are not expects in most of the areas they've researched.
Overall, it is a great and easy-to-read overview of where we are right now, what's likely to expect in the relatively near future and what might come in the longer term.
January 16, 2023
The word skeptic has gotten a bad rep, and one could easily deduct from the book title that the authors will nitpick current and previous visions of the future to exhaustion. Rest assured: the Novella brothers are excellent critical thinkers and big nerds of science fiction and space fantasy. The exploration of the near and distant future is in safe hands!
The book first lays down the pitfalls of futurism (calling them futurism fallacies) and frequently refers to them throughout the chapters. The fallacies help the authors be honest, managing the reader's expectations.
Part two of the book goes through today's technology and how that is already shaping and will continue to shape the future. The book navigates such existing technologies and makes a compelling argument that even incremental advances soon add up to create a profound effect on us.
The following parts of the book increasingly distance the reader from the current reality, going from non-existing but very probable future technologies to pure tech fantasies and technobabble. The authors give a good perspective on why some tech from sci-fi movies and books is beyond the realm of possibilities.
I thoroughly enjoyed the book and was reminded that predicting the future is not just about technological advances. Science, exploration, and incremental technological advances significantly alter the course of history. Yet, do we understand how they change how we think and what decisions we make? Would we have the same governing structures if every resource imaginable was abundant? Would it seem reckless or unnatural to have designer babies a century from now? There are a lot of similar questions that the book explores and that I keep raising in my head.
One criticism I have for the book is that it feels too dry and overly factual at times. If you're not in a focus mode while reading/listening to the book, some topics, such as rocket propulsion will fly over your head!
The book first lays down the pitfalls of futurism (calling them futurism fallacies) and frequently refers to them throughout the chapters. The fallacies help the authors be honest, managing the reader's expectations.
Part two of the book goes through today's technology and how that is already shaping and will continue to shape the future. The book navigates such existing technologies and makes a compelling argument that even incremental advances soon add up to create a profound effect on us.
The following parts of the book increasingly distance the reader from the current reality, going from non-existing but very probable future technologies to pure tech fantasies and technobabble. The authors give a good perspective on why some tech from sci-fi movies and books is beyond the realm of possibilities.
I thoroughly enjoyed the book and was reminded that predicting the future is not just about technological advances. Science, exploration, and incremental technological advances significantly alter the course of history. Yet, do we understand how they change how we think and what decisions we make? Would we have the same governing structures if every resource imaginable was abundant? Would it seem reckless or unnatural to have designer babies a century from now? There are a lot of similar questions that the book explores and that I keep raising in my head.
One criticism I have for the book is that it feels too dry and overly factual at times. If you're not in a focus mode while reading/listening to the book, some topics, such as rocket propulsion will fly over your head!
November 1, 2022
Antever os futuros possíveis passou do misticismo oracular do passado para, na era da ciência e tecnologia, ser um dos pilares da forma como encaramos a sociedade. Olhamos para o futuro, tentamos antever as tendências, imaginamos, quer através da ficção científica quer da análise especulativa, perceber como irão evoluir as tecnologias, as pessoas, e as sociedades. Ser futurista passou a ser uma profissáo de respeito, que implica análise, especulação informada, e também alguma capacidade de sonhar.
No entanto, há sonhos e sonhos. Alguns estão dentro dos limites do possível, quer os possíveis da tecnologia contemporânea, quer os limites terminais das leis fundamentais da física. Outros desafiam alguns limites, mas com o investimento certo, poderão levar a desenvolvimentos que os possibilitem. Ou não, e poderão ser becos sem saída. Outros ainda são fortemente improváveis, ou mesmo impossíveis, e aqui cabem muitos dos artifícios que a ficção científica popular se socorre para tornar as suas histórias mais empolgantes (é de notar que Novella não é anti-FC, nota-se no seu livro que é um apaixonado do género com uma enorme cultura literária).
São estes os prismas com que Novella aborda as tecnologias que poderão ditar os futuros possíveis, analisando-as numa lógica que cruza limites técnicos com impactos sociais. Recorda-nos que as reais possibilidades das tecnologias se realizam na sociedade, ou seja, é a forma como as pessoas lhes dão uso o que dita o sucesso de uma dada tecnologia (mesmo que este sucesso tenha consequências negativas). É o que pretende ser - um guia céptico, que equilibra realismo sem, no entanto, jamais recusar o sonho.
No entanto, há sonhos e sonhos. Alguns estão dentro dos limites do possível, quer os possíveis da tecnologia contemporânea, quer os limites terminais das leis fundamentais da física. Outros desafiam alguns limites, mas com o investimento certo, poderão levar a desenvolvimentos que os possibilitem. Ou não, e poderão ser becos sem saída. Outros ainda são fortemente improváveis, ou mesmo impossíveis, e aqui cabem muitos dos artifícios que a ficção científica popular se socorre para tornar as suas histórias mais empolgantes (é de notar que Novella não é anti-FC, nota-se no seu livro que é um apaixonado do género com uma enorme cultura literária).
São estes os prismas com que Novella aborda as tecnologias que poderão ditar os futuros possíveis, analisando-as numa lógica que cruza limites técnicos com impactos sociais. Recorda-nos que as reais possibilidades das tecnologias se realizam na sociedade, ou seja, é a forma como as pessoas lhes dão uso o que dita o sucesso de uma dada tecnologia (mesmo que este sucesso tenha consequências negativas). É o que pretende ser - um guia céptico, que equilibra realismo sem, no entanto, jamais recusar o sonho.
October 3, 2023
Sci-fi is a favorite genre of mine so I was extremely excited to read this book (and now even more excited to read the first Novella Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe, based off the other reviews about it)! Personally, I enjoyed the first part of the book the most because the analyses of all the fallacies and pitfalls of futurism/sci-fi works really tickled something in my brain. Seeing it put into words really had me re-evaluating all the media I’ve consumed before in relation to how technology and behaviors were extrapolated way too far. It was thought-provoking to the point where I genuinely had to take long breaks in between reading (I’m normally a binge reader). I did get lost for awhile in the technical, textbook style middle part of the book because the balance that Novella had maintained between jargon and discussion/analysis was knocked off kilter for a bit. Though, as an environmental engineer myself, I did nerd out for specific chapters :-) I super respect the level of expertise it takes to explain such discombobulating and technical topics in a casual and digestible way though. And it was a great way to get more good sci fi recs lol. The conclusion: “the future is now” + there’s no way to feasibly imagine in any great detail how we will live that far in the future because we will have become our technology and the implications of that on our civilizations and psychology is currently unimaginable. It reminds me a lot of how it’s like to visualize something like the concept of infinity. I have a lot of philosophical questions left from this and there’s no doubt that I will continue to think about this book. Will read the first Skeptics’ book and also get more into their podcast when I get the time :)
September 29, 2022
"Бъдещето е дива фантазия. Скалъпено набързо от нашите надежди, страхове, предразсъдъци, невежество и въображение и казва много повече за нас, отколкото за това, което предстои. Предвижданията за бъдещето всъщност са само отражения на настоящето."
- Стивън Новела, " The Skeptics' Guide to the Future "
След превъзходната "The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe", където се потопихме в непресъхващия извор на невежеството, лековерието и откровената човешка глупост (и начините да им противодействаме), този път, братята Новела ни повеждат към една истинска terra incognita, непозната, опасна, но и вълнуваща - собственото ни бъдеще. Предвиждането му, самите автори признават за обречено начинание, но това няма да ни спре да опитваме. Твърде неустоимо е.
След кратък очерк на историята на футуризма и заблужденията, в които хората изпадат, изпробвайки гадателските си умения, следва относително изчерпателно и изключително интересно описание, на някои от най-любопитните съществуващи, нововъзникващи и спекулативни/фантастични технологии, с потенциал да променят из основи обществото ни и самите нас.
Книгата грабва със заразителния си ентусиазъм, техно-оптимизма, но и солидната доза научен скептицизъм и критична мисъл, подплатили прогностичната проза на Стивън, Боб и Джей Новела.
- Стивън Новела, " The Skeptics' Guide to the Future "
След превъзходната "The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe", където се потопихме в непресъхващия извор на невежеството, лековерието и откровената човешка глупост (и начините да им противодействаме), този път, братята Новела ни повеждат към една истинска terra incognita, непозната, опасна, но и вълнуваща - собственото ни бъдеще. Предвиждането му, самите автори признават за обречено начинание, но това няма да ни спре да опитваме. Твърде неустоимо е.
След кратък очерк на историята на футуризма и заблужденията, в които хората изпадат, изпробвайки гадателските си умения, следва относително изчерпателно и изключително интересно описание, на някои от най-любопитните съществуващи, нововъзникващи и спекулативни/фантастични технологии, с потенциал да променят из основи обществото ни и самите нас.
Книгата грабва със заразителния си ентусиазъм, техно-оптимизма, но и солидната доза научен скептицизъм и критична мисъл, подплатили прогностичната проза на Стивън, Боб и Джей Новела.
January 28, 2023
I love these guys, having listened to about a thousand hours of their podcasts and loving their first book. So, this review probably isn't objective. I tore through this book and enjoyed their hard skeptical take on futurism, but it was a weird experience that left me feeling a bit empty. There were a bunch of times where I was interested in a topic, or became interested in it based on their writing, and I wanted them to go on and on imagining some wild future. But ... they didn't. And that's the point, isn't it? We can't predict the future, because current trends might continue our they might hit some roadblock. Likewise there might be some looming eureka that upends society and makes current predictions look silly and quaint like the Jetsons. So, I would strangely recommend this book to folks who aren't huge nerds like me. But, if you already know to doubt bullshit artists, critically assess your own thinking, and be comfortable with uncertainty ... then this is basically a neat summary of historical futurism and then a summary of cool technology. Which is fine and an enjoyable read, but didn't rock my world. But ... that's okay, since after all the whole point of the future is that it's what we make it, and who knows what we messy humans are going to do?
February 11, 2023
Although the book's second half was a little better, the first half really left a bad taste in my mouth. In the first half, Novella kind of just sums up all the cutting edge technology of the world. At first, this seems super interesting, but most of the topics aren't really on the bleeding edge so you've probably heard of them through the news or just in everyday life. The second half goes more into the far future of technology and if, based on laws of physics, current tech, etc., it will be possible. This was a little more exciting but it still was a little lackluster. Overall, this book felt very surface-level. I wish Novella took more time and worked through the implications that these technologies would have on the world. For example, instead of exploring how 200 year life spans would affect family dynamics, economics, and the world we know, Novella simply offers you the question of how the world would be affected. I buy these books so that people can do the research and thinking for me, I don't want to do it myself! Oh and to hammer my point home, Novella presents a vision of the future where humans live a life of leisure doing whatever they want while robots work, kind of ending capitalism and the concept of money all in one paragraph. Then he moves on.
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